UPDATES:

WEDNESDAY EVENING:

A line of strong storms capable of producing 40-60 mph winds and small hail continues to track east through Mid-Missouri. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 4:00 a.m. for much of the area.

BLOG

An ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day has been issued for Wednesday night from 5 p.m to 5 a.m. Thursday ahead of storms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly tornadoes.

SETUP

A system with strong wind shear may be able to make use of what little instability we have present, come Wednesday evening. A strong pressure gradient will have us windy again Wednesday morning. Good wind flow through the atmosphere will be able to transport better moisture into the region through the day, aiding in storm development that evening. Moisture and instability will be present as a result of this setup. Some storms may develop in this environment in the afternoon and early evening to our west. A cold front will arrive later in the evening driving storms with better lift.

TIMING

Storms that develop to our west ahead of the cold front may be able to become severe in the heat of the afternoon where instability is greatest. This may bleed into our western most communities by 9 p.m. Wednesday. It is unclear exactly how far these storms will make it into Mid-Missouri as they will lose support with eastward extent. By 11 p.m. - midnight the aforementioned cold front will likely drive a line of storms near our western most counties. This line will push east through the region, bisecting the center of the region around 1-2 a.m., and reaching the eastern border somewhere near 4-5:00 a.m.

IMPACTS

Our primary concern with Thursday's storms will be for damaging wind, but there will be a slim chance for tornadoes that may spin up in response to this strong wind and a somewhat favorable environment. This tornado risk highest across eastern Kansas, but with enough "spin" in the atmosphere, a few weak tornadoes are possible in Mid-Missouri, especially west of Highway 63. Hail will also be possible with any strong storms.

Storms are generally expected to weaken over time, so severe impacts should become more isolated with time and eastward progression.

Make sure you have a way to get immediate alerts overnight. Download the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App for free to get those real time watches and warnings, along with lightning alerts here.