Tracking severe storms late tonight
TONIGHT: Our ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day culminates in a chance for severe storms tonight, largely after 9 p.m. Confidence is increasing in a round of storms developing after 7 p.m. in far eastern Kansas. This activity is forecast to track east southeast into western Missouri where storms are expected to grow upscale into a cluster of thunderstorms and spread across mid-Missouri. Confidence is increasing that we'll see these storms focus south of I-70, arriving in southwest mid-Missouri closer to 10-11 p.m. This is the greatest risk for severe storms, and we expect storms to have potential for damaging winds and hail. The flash flood and tornado risk is low, but not out of the question. IF we see a tornado, it will likely be short-lived. Rain placement has been fairly low-confidence up until this point, so I've be hesitant about rain totals, but as we near the event, it's becoming clear that some south of HWY 50, near the lake area, could see storms produce more than an inch of rain. This will largely depend on storm placement, and if we see multiple rounds of heavy rain locally.
TOMORROW: The severe threat will likely come to an end around 3 a.m. in the far south, but rain will linger behind the initial round of storms. Showers should clear by sunrise. We're noticeably more mild on Thursday, with temperatures climbing only into the low 90s, and drier air moving back into the region from the north. Some spotty showers and storms are possible Thursday afternoon, but Thursday looks mostly dry overall.
EXTENDED: Better chances for thunderstorms to return come again Friday through Friday night. Active northwest flow will bring another chance for widespread rain. Still expect a hot day on Friday ahead of storm chances, with temperatures in the low-to-mid-90s, with dewpoints increasing into the afternoon. Saturday is looking mostly dry, with some partly cloudy skies, but low chances for rain dot the forecast Sunday through the middle of next week. High temperatures will linger near 90 through the rest of the forecast.
