Winter Weather Special: Wet and snowy winter expected with a few cold snaps
2025 was a very active weather year in Mid-Missouri, from above-average snowfall by winter's end to claiming the number three spot for most tornado warnings nationwide.
On the last day of November 2024, Columbia picked up a hefty 3 inches of snow that made for an interesting Mizzou-Arkansas football game, and set the tone for the rest of the official winter season.
December was warmer than normal, but some bitter cold snaps sent January and February well below average. We ended up with 15 inches of snow through March 1.
Last year, the global pattern was classified as a weak La Nina episode, meaning ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were coming in a little cooler than average. We're already seeing some signs pointing to a similar pattern for our upcoming winter.
During a La Nina event, the polar jet stream aligns with the Pacific jet, bringing more moisture and active weather to the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio Valley. Temperatures and precipitation tend to be more variable in our area versus warmer and drier across the South.
We can take a look at snow pack across the Arctic Circle to get a better idea of what the polar vortex could do over the winter season. A wide swath of snow coverage has been observed since earlier this fall, pointing toward a weaker polar vortex.
A strong polar vortex will stay tightly wound around the North Pole, whereas a weaker polar vortex will appear more wavy. A disrupted or weaker polar vortex could push those cold air intrusions south into the Midwest and Plains, giving us short stretches of frigid temperatures.
Mid-Missouri usually averages around 15 inches of snow with an average temperature of 32 degrees over those three months.
NOAA is predicting equal chances of above- or below-average temperatures and precipitation in Missouri, indicative of a highly variable, weak La Niña pattern. Drought looks to expand across the South and persist in areas where it's already present, with the warmest and driest conditions across the Southwest and Southeast.
The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team issues Weather Alert Days when accumulating snow, sleet, or freezing rain is possible. Lows below 10 degrees and wind chills below zero will also trigger a Weather Alert Day.
With our weak La Nina in mind, our winter is expected to be slightly cooler and wetter than average with several nuisance storms that will bring a mixed bag of rain, ice, and snow.
Total seasonal snowfall will be slightly above average, with a range of 15 to18 inches.
