Missouri faces drought and extended warmth despite Election Day rain
Mid-MO voters hit the November polls on one of the wettest days in recent memory, after a dry and record-warm October.
Last month was the third warmest October on record in Columbia, with an average temperature of 64.9 degrees Fahrenheit, or 7.4 degrees warmer than normal. Only four days out of the month were below normal.
Much of October was also dry, though a few short bursts of rain fell in the first two weeks of the month. Columbia received 1.57 inches of rain in October, less than half of the normal 3.47 inches. No rain was recorded from the 17th through the end of the month.
Indeed, most of Mid-Missouri saw around half of its usual rainfall last month. That has led to a rain deficit of 0.75" to 1" across the area, and drier conditions look to continue into November.
Drought continues to encroach on the Show-Me state as rain totals fall behind. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, incorporating data through October 27th, shows just over 68% of the state is drier than normal, with 47% in a moderate drought.
Severe drought now covers 34% of Missouri, and extreme drought has expanded to 16% of the land area. The worst conditions in Mid-MO can be found to the south, where severe to extreme drought covers much of Camden, Pulaski, and Phelps counties.
Election Day rain will provide some relief, but not enough to catch up on rainfall or clear the drought. The latest rain totals from Tuesday have reached above an inch from Versailles up to Boonville, while the rest of us saw around a quarter to half an inch.
This rain will provide a brief break from the above-average temperatures that haunted us through most of October. The forecast favors highs in the upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s by the end of the week, right on the nose for early November temperatures.
However, extended outlooks indicate a return to our unusually warm fall weather we've been having. The Climate Prediction Center's 8- to 14-day outlook, which covers November 11th through the 17th, is highly confident (above 80%) that temperatures will be above normal by the middle of the month.
While somewhat less confident, forecasts also lean toward a drier pattern into mid-November for Missouri and the surrounding Ohio Valley.
This picture is a good representation of the pattern we usually expect during an El Niño, as the jet stream stalls across the West and Deep South, leaving our region drier and warmer. El Niño is still strengthening and could peak at historic heights in the winter.
Columbia has now seen two straight top-3 warmest months on record (#1 in September and #3 in October) as El Niño continues to release heat into the atmosphere and raise global temperatures.
