Could heavy rain impact voter turnout in Mid-MO for the midterms?
Rain is expected in Mid-Missouri on Election Day, but will it affect voter participation in the midterms? National research indicates that while weather can influence turnout, the overall effect is projected to be minimal.
A famous 2007 research paper titled “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections” examined voting rates across 14 U.S. presidential elections using data from 22,000 weather monitoring sites.
The study found that every inch of rainfall decreases turnout by slightly less than 1%, while an inch of snowfall leads to a 0.5% decline. Although some shifts in turnout could favor Republican candidates, analysts note the pattern may also involve undecided or swing voters.
Early voting options can help reduce the impact on voter participation. In Boone County, residents are allowed to cast ballots early without needing an excuse for up to two weeks prior to Election Day.
Boone County Clerk Brianna Lennon says there was an uptick in early voting this year ahead of the rainy forecast. "We started seeing an uptick on Friday. But over the weekend, we definitely had people specifically mentioning that the forecast was the reason they were voting in advance." Lennon says.
There are several measures in place to keep votes secure in the event of an emergency. "We have redundancies for things like if there's a power outage to make sure that voting can still continue and that people can be safe." Lennon explains.
She says most polling locations already try to keep lines indoors and insulated from the elements as much as possible.
Some groups are more likely to avoid polling locations during poor weather, including elderly, physically impaired individuals, and voters with weaker party affiliations. Younger voters who walk or bike in college towns such as Columbia may also be deterred.
Boone County voters have hit the November polls in several different weather conditions. In 2016, a total of 85,012 ballots were submitted when the county received 0.21 inches of rain. Turnout reached 131,022 in 2020 during dry conditions, while the 2024 election saw 91,271 ballots cast alongside 0.23 inches of rain.
Midterm election data really illustrates that weather is not the sole factor driving voter turnout. Participation during the 2018 midterm elections reached 75,699 ballots despite trace amounts of rainfall. By comparison, the 2022 midterm election was dry, but saw the lowest turnout of any major November election in the past decade, with 63,746 total ballots cast.
The 2026 midterms could be the wettest November elections in Mid-MO in the last decade, with forecasts calling for 1 to 2 inches of rain locally. Voters who plan to hit the polls early before work could find themselves stuck in a deluge as the heaviest rain is expected to fall in the morning hours.
Rain chances are slightly lower in the late afternoon, so you might have better luck getting to the polls after work instead. If you find yourself waiting in line after 7 p.m., stay in line to vote! Polls will stay open to allow everyone in line to vote; however, if you arrive at the polling location after it has closed you will not be allowed to vote.
