Halloween chocolate prices jump 15% over last year

Mid-MO customers may get a fright at the store this season, as several sources report Halloween chocolate prices jumping 15% higher than this time last year.

The sticker shock is already scaring away shoppers—NielsenIQ reported a 6.7% drop in Halloween candy sales through mid-October, and a steeper 11.7% decline in September. Experts say several factors are lining up to spook consumers this year.

Gas prices are still top of mind for many. Missouri's average price for a gallon of gas remains at $3.89, almost 44% higher than this time last year, but still below the national average of $4.19. You can find the cheapest gas for your holiday travels at our Fuel Finder.

General inflation is also wearing on our wallets, and candy has seen about twice the increase as other foods. Candy and gum prices were up 44% in a five-year-period ending in September, while all food inflation jumped by 22.5% in the same time.

Several years of bad weather in the cocoa belt is mostly to blame. West Africa, which supplies about 70% of the world's cocoa, saw several consecutive growing seasons impacted by bad weather and disease, starting around 2023.

That pushed cocoa prices to historic highs in 2024 and 2025, soaring above $10,000 per metric ton several times betwen mid-2024 and early 2025. The high prices scared away customers and led to a decline in demand, causing cocoa prices to plummet through early 2026.

Cocoa has since become pricier again as the war in Iran disrupts fertilizer supplies, and a behemoth El Nino developing in the Pacific is expected to lower global production as temperatures rise and extreme weather events unfold in coming year.

On the consumer side, chocolate prices remained high due to a lag in the supply and demand of cocoa. Chocolate-makers will typically lock in their cocoa prices ahead of the season, so many were still paying record prices after the peak began to subside.

It's also not just chocolate that's hurting this year. Other non-chocolate candies like gummies have become increasingly competitive with cocoa, and are actually around 3% cheaper than last year. But those candies aren't seeing a bump in sales as consumers keep a death grip on their finances.