Missouri grain harvest declines slightly, livestock production suffers due to drought

Fall in Missouri has felt more like July, and the heat is shaping the harvest across the Show-Me state.

Theo Rieckhoff, director of market development and commodities for the Missouri Farm Bureau, says the effects vary to the north and south, and across farm operations.

"It's a little bit different story depending on where you're at in the state in terms of how it's impacted your operation or row crop production," Rieckhoff says.

For row-crop farmers, the warm, dry fall has meant steady progress. "In the northern half of the state, we're seeing good progress in terms of harvest," he said. "I think Missouri is ahead of corn harvest and soybean harvest compared to the five year average by a few percent."

"Harvest is progressing nicely in the row-crop production side of things," Rieckhoff said. "Soybean yields may have slipped a few bushels due to the dryness in August and September, but overall corn progress is good."

While it's been a harsh few months, the growing season didn't start dry. Heavy spring rains actually slowed planting in parts of the state, including on Rieckhoff's own family's operation in Pettis County.

"There's several parts of the state this spring where producers had delayed planting or were slower to get into the fields because of heavy spring rains," he said. "I know from my family's operation based out of Pettis County, Missouri, if you didn't plant that first week of April, it was the second half of May before you get back in the fields, because we dealt with so much moisture. You could start seeing some nitrogen deficiency from the excess moisture, which limited some fields' yield potential as that went on."

Things then took a turn to the drier side into fall. "For central Missouri specifically, we took a good summer for the most part with cooler temperatures until we got into August," Rieckhoff said. "And there was just a few weeks there right around the state fair where we had some brutal heat that really impacted soybeans yield potential."

"Looking at the forecast, the USDA forecasted yield for corn and soybeans, I believe the projection was 181 bushels per acre for corn and 48 bushels per acre for soybeans," Rieckhoff said. That is "about 2 bushels per acre lower for corn than 2025 and 2 bushels lower for soybeans compared to 2025. So yields are off somewhat compared to last year."

Conditions are worse down south in livestock country. "It's a different story if you're in one of the main cattle producing regions of the state," Rieckhoff said. "Looking at southwest Missouri and south-central Missouri, we are experiencing some record droughts. I was talking with a producer from Texas County down by Houston earlier, and they have a terrible drought going on."

The numbers back that up. "We have about 45% of the state is in moderate drought or worse. So it's covering a significant portion of the state right now," he said. "Over 15% is in an extreme drought. And that's majority located in the areas of southwestern to south-central Missouri, our heavy cattle production areas of the state."

"Droughts for cattle production can have long lasting impacts whenever you are dry from July onwards," Rieckhoff said. "A lot of producers haven't had the late summer and fall rains that we can typically rely on in Missouri, leading to a shortage of forage and hay production in that part of the state."

The drier fall is setting up a harsh winter for some producers. "When you look at drought impacting those producers down there, you're having insurance claims on forage production, you're having a lack of feed availability for those producers down there going into winter," he said. "Farmers feed a lot of hay, so you need to have that on hand in order to keep your animals fed. And a lot of producers, there's a lot of acres of pasture stockpile and hay missing out there due to the drought."

Rieckhoff summed up the split this way: "If you're in grain production, you're looking at great harvest progress and continued good harvest progress into the fall. But if you're a livestock guy, you're facing some extreme drought if you're in the south, central or southwest part of the state."