Remnants of Polo to bring late-week rain to Mid-MO
Hurricane Polo is expected to make landfall near major hurricane strength on the Baja California peninsula Monday evening. Its remnants could bring heavy rain to Mid-Missouri, more than 1,500 miles away, later this week.
Polo has already made history. Based on wind speeds and central pressures, it ranks among the five strongest and most intense hurricanes on record in the Western Hemisphere. It's also the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2026 Pacific season, tying the record for the most in a single year.
A historic El Niño is driving this active season, with very warm Pacific water and low wind shear. Meanwhile, the Atlantic and the Gulf sit quiet.
Polo will come ashore in a sparsely populated stretch of Baja Sur, but parts of coastal Mexico could see over a foot of rain before the storm falls apart and drifts north.
The moisture doesn't just vanish, either. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, Polo's remnants will merge with another low pressure system over the Desert Southwest, giving that storm extra fuel as it moves east.
The Weather Prediction Center has issued several days' worth of excessive rainfall outlooks, with at least a 40% chance of flash flooding across several states including Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, and Oklahoma.
Nearly the entire Show-Me State falls under a slight risk of flash flooding on Thursday. That's when we could pick up over 2 inches of rain, especially in southwest Missouri.
Remnants of Pacific hurricanes reaching the Midwest isn't unheard of. In 1986, moisture from Hurricane Paine's remnants contributed to severe river flooding along the Osage and Arkansas Rivers.
For the southern half of the state, this rain would be welcome. Extreme drought now covers just over 10% of Missouri's land area. But heavy rain over a short window can overwhelm dry, hard ground as easily as saturated soil, so flash flooding remains the main concern, especially in low-lying areas and along creeks.
If you're driving Thursday, don't cross flooded roads. Turn around, don't drown.
We'll keep tracking Polo's remnants on air and online as the forecast comes into focus.
