Early fall outlook favors warmer temperatures, toss-up precip chances

As we head into September, forecasters are already eyeing the pattern for the start of fall, but summer isn't quite ready to let go. Early signs point to a warmer-than-average stretch for Central Missouri.

According to the Climate Prediction Center's 8-to-14 day outlook, which covers September 1st through the 7th, the odds are tilted toward warmth.

"Looking at the Climate Prediction Center's 8- to 14-day outlook, which covers from September 1st to September 7th, they have us, locally in central Missouri and points east, at about a 60% chance of above-normal temperatures and about a 30% chance for near normal and then a 7% chance for below normal," said Cole Peine, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in St. Louis. "So indications are favoring that temperatures will be above normal."

For context, average highs this time of year typically run in the low-to-mid 80s, with lows around 60 to 62 degrees. If the CPC's outlook holds, we could be looking at temperatures a bit warmer than that.

Precipitation is a different story. Unlike the temperature outlook, there's no clear signal on rainfall for that first week of September.

"Precipitation-wise for that same period, the Climate Prediction Center's got us at basically equal chances for either above, below, or near normal," Piney said. "The average precip for that week is about point nine inches to an inch for this area. So indications are that we may see around that."

In other words, it's close to a coin flip.

"So basically, there's really no good signal to indicate that we're going to get more precip than normal," Piney said. "But there's also not a good indication that we're going to get less than normal."

Piney points to a ridge of high pressure that may shift and weaken right around the start of September. That shift could reinforce the warm forecast while also cutting down on rain chances early in the month.

"The indications are that, starting next weekend, so right at the beginning of September, that ridge might shift east and start to kind of flatten out, maybe become less amplified," Piney said. "What that means for us is maybe some warmer temperatures towards the beginning, which would align with the CPC's outlook for temperatures. And then it actually could limit some rain chances at the beginning."

Beyond the first couple weeks of September, the picture gets murkier. The seasonal outlook doesn't show a strong lean in either direction for temperature or precipitation.

"It's hard to say how long that's going to last into September," Piney said. "The seasonal outlook they have us highlighted in equal chances for both average temperatures and then equal chances for average precip as well. So there's really no good indication of trends in either direction beyond, like, the middle of September. Beyond that, yeah, it's kind of a coin toss."

Expect a warm start to fall across central Missouri, with rain chances too close to call. We'll continue tracking the pattern as we move deeper into September.