Weather Alert Day: Tracking a conditional threat for severe storms Friday afternoon

The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team is tracking the potential for two rounds of storms that could bring widespread rain and possible strong winds to Mid-Missouri on Friday. A Weather Alert Day will be in effect from 4:00 p.m. through 10:00 p.m.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the jet stream will send a strong disturbance across the region to provide lift for the development of thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow morning. To our west, we are tracking an area of low pressure that will dive down in our direction out of the Plains, and drag a cold front through the state on Friday night.

At the same time, we'll have low level winds kicking up tonight, increasing the available moisture across the region. This could give us higher than normal rainfall rates with both rounds.

The first round looks to stick around through late morning or midday. If cloud cover hangs around long enough, it could limit destabilization enough to prevent many strong storms from forming.

If we see sunshine early in the afternoon, instability could be sufficient along with localized wind shear for at least a few strong storms with 50-60 mph winds and a few brief, weak tornadoes.

Eastern Missouri looks to be the most favorable zone for this conditional severe threat, especially along and east of Highway 63. The window for the second round will be from about 4:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m where a level 2/5 severe risk from the Storm Prediction Center is in place.

If you have outdoor plans on Friday afternoon or evening, make sure you have the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App to get warning notifications and lightning alerts.

Low pressure looks to slide to our southeast on Saturday across Illinois into the Ohio Valley with cloud cover and light rain off and on through the day, keeping temperatures in the upper 70s.