Weather Alert Day: Flooding threat wanes tonight
FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Camden, Pulaski, and Phelps counties until 1 a.m. tonight for an isolated risk of damaging winds and a spin-up tornado.
Flood Watches and Warnings have been allowed to expire across the area as rain has become much more isolated Friday night. Some parts of Mid-MO may have picked up over an inch of rain today alone.
Isolated storms persist overnight and Saturday, with another inch of rain possible. Be extra cautious on roads this weekend, with isolated flooding possible.
FUTURETRACK
Scattered to isolated storms continue through sunset, with coverage declining into the night. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is possible, mostly south of I-70.
Spotty showers will last through Saturday, but the risk of flooding will be much lower. A lot of dry time is expected on Saturday, and conditions will be hot and humid with highs in the mid-80s.
SETUP
A stalled front remains stationary over the region through Friday night as an upper-level wave departs. Scattered storms will continue behind this system through Saturday.
Precipitable water values were quite high with this event, reaching nearly 2 inches on Thursday and Friday. Precipitable water is the total amount of water in the air above a certain point, but it is not the same as rainfall. Precipitable water values near 2 inches are significant and indicate high atmospheric moisture, even for early summer.
Storms repeatedly tracked over the same areas in recent days, what we call "training" storms, like a line of train cars moving along a straight path. Our "train track," so to speak, is the stalled front. Training storms often bring appreciable rainfall and flooding concerns.
The Weather Prediction Center has much of the state in a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Thursday into Friday. A range of 1-3 inches of rain is possible for all, with isolated totals of 3-4 inches possible along Highway 50. This axis of heaviest rain may shift in the forecast, as a dift north or south is still possible.
As storms move in south of the front on Thursday evening, strong winds may be possible from our strongest storms.
Rain and storms come to an end on Saturday as the front lifts back north, shifting our focus from flooding to dangerous heat. A dome of high pressure builds to our south, drawing in moisture-rich air from the south as dew points rise into the 70s and highs spike into the 90s. No Weather Alert Days are yet active for next week, but the potential for dangerous 105+ degree heat indexes has us closely monitoring for that possibility.
The heat index is currently forecast to reach the triple digits with readings between 100-105 degrees through early next week.
