How the abnormally high rain totals of spring 2026 are keeping the forecast cooler

With the record-breaking rain totals over this spring season, the last thing Central Missouri has to worry about is a drought. With March in Columbia measuring up to 4.23" of rain, April bringing a total of 8.14", and May bringing a total of 8.35", the 2026 spring season will move to the third wettest spring on record in Columbia. That's a total of 20.72" of rainfall measured at the airport, which beat the previous third place spot of 20.57", set back in the spring of 1990.

These impressive rain totals have been helping us out in more ways than one. Not only has it kept Central and Northern Missouri from experiencing any dry conditions, but it has also helped keep the daily high temperatures slightly cooler compared to if the region were under severe drought conditions, like Southern Missouri and the Bootheel.

This is because of a process called evapotranspiration, or latent heat of evaporation. For Central Missouri right now, as the sun is heating the surface of the Earth, the saturated ground begins to warm up until evaporation occurs. With this phase change, energy from the atmosphere is needed, so rather than the incoming solar radiation being used to first heat up the ground and then the surrounding air, it is instead absorbed by the phase change, keeping the air temperature cooler.

For those areas experiencing more intense drought conditions because of the lack of rainfall, there is a lack of this evaporation process. Since there is not nearly as much energy being absorbed by the phase change into a gas, the majority of the energy can instead go into heating up the air the ground is in contact with, which results in higher afternoon temperatures.

So, for the short term, this is making for a cooler forecast in Central Missouri, but as more moisture is evaporated from the ground into the atmosphere, the air will begin to consistently hold more of that water content.

This means that the ground will begin to receive more efficient heating, which will in turn drive up air temperatures through the weekend. Higher air temperatures paired with higher dewpoints, which is a measure of the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, mean a higher heat index.

The reason this is an issue is that in these more humid conditions, where there is a higher heat index, the excess moisture in the atmosphere makes it harder for evaporation to occur in general. Due to this, the important process of sweat being evaporated from your body to cool the thin layer of air surrounding your body happens at a slower rate. This means your body may not be able to cool itself off fast enough before heat exhaustion or heat-related illnesses begin to settle in.

This is why it could feel like the upper 80s and low 90s this weekend, so make sure that hydration is at the top of your list for any outdoor activities in the heat.