How current drought conditions could change thanks to El Niño this summer

As we close out April, Missouri finds itself at a climatological crossroads. Between a shifting global ocean pattern and a stubborn dryness in the soil for some, the forecast for this summer is shaping up to be a game of two halves. Here is the breakdown of where we stand and what the emerging El Niño means for our upcoming season.

Nationally, the drought picture is a tale of extremes. While most of the southern and western portions of the United States are under severe to exceptional drought conditions, areas north and east of Missouri aren't even being considered dry. Missouri's situation is slightly more in the middle.

Recent spring rains and storms have successfully greened up the surface across much of the I-70 corridor, but a significant deficit remains. The south-central Ozarks are still under severe to extreme drought conditions. Because deep-layer moisture hasn't fully recharged, ponds and groundwater tables remain lower than average heading into the high-evaporation months.

For the first two weeks of May, the Climate Prediction Center points toward a near-normal precipitation trend for Central Missouri. While we aren't expecting a total washout, this consistent moisture is vital for early-season crop emergence and maintaining the surface-level recovery we've seen so far. Expect more fast-moving systems rather than one massive, drought-busting storm.

The biggest story in global weather is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This is a periodic shift in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific that causes impacts across the world's atmosphere.

We are currently in a neutral phase, but that is changing fast. There is now over a 60% chance of El Niño emerging by mid-summer. El Niño occurs when those Pacific waters warm significantly, shifting the jet stream and altering where heat and rain settle over North America.

So, what does an El Niño transition mean for a Missouri summer? The first is the "heat ceiling". Historically, these summers in the Midwest tend to avoid the stagnant ridges and heat domes that cause 105-degree heat waves. Instead, we often see more humidity but fewer extreme temperature spikes.

While the outlook shows equal chances for rain, El Niño often energizes the subtropical jet stream. This can lead to more frequent overnight thunderstorm complexes, which are a primary source of moisture for crops when we reach July.

There is a silver lining for the coast: El Niño is known for hurting hurricane chances. As the Pacific warms, it creates increased vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin. This tears at developing tropical storms, typically leading to a less active Atlantic hurricane season. While it only takes one storm to make an impact, the overall environment looks less favorable for major landfalls this year.

As we transition into this new cycle, the thing to watch will be what's called "moisture banking." With a potential Super El Niño on the horizon for late 2026, it would be ideal to maintain the progress that the state has made and hope that the shifting jet stream brings the rain we need to finally erase the long-term drought in the state.