April showers bring risk of flooding to Mid-Missouri

April has brought its namesake showers as much of the area prepares for 2 to 4 inches of rain in the first week of the month. This wet pattern follows a warmer and wetter than average March, which could increase the risk of flooding in Mid-Missouri in the coming days.

It may be hard to think of last month as wet when heat dominated the headlines. Last month was the hottest March in U.S. history and one of the top five warmest Marches in Columbia. This record heat contributed to several fire weather days throughout the month.

However, March was also wetter than normal for the Upper Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. Some parts of Missouri received more than twice their average rainfall for March. Columbia saw 4.23 inches of rain last month, compared to the 30-year average of 2.97 inches for March.

This rainfall has been a welcome relief, significantly improving drought conditions across the Show-Me State. In early March, nearly 60% of Missouri was in drought, with a fifth in severe drought. According to the latest drought update through March 24th, drought coverage has decreased to 30% of the state, mostly in the far north and south.

The wettest days of the year are still ahead. On average, Mid-Missouri sees its highest rainfall in April and May, with monthly averages near 5 inches. In just the first week of April, we expect between 2 and 4 inches of rain, especially tonight and again on Friday night. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of flash flooding for Wednesday night, indicating a 15% chance of flooding, or about 1 in 6.

Even low flood threats should be taken seriously. Flooding is the most common, deadly, and costly weather disaster in the United States, aside from extreme heat. Most flood-related deaths occur in vehicles when people try to drive through flooded roads. That's why meteorologists emphasize “turn around, don't drown." That phrase could save your life.

Local major rivers like the Missouri and Mississippi will only see small rises with the incoming rain. However, smaller creeks could reach flood stages; for example, Petite Saline Creek near Boonville is forecast to reach moderate flood stage by Thursday night, but levels are expected to fall below flood stage by the weekend.