Wet and warm spring with several severe weather events ahead

Missouri has started the spring season with rainfall totals just under 2" above normal for the first three weeks of March. This wet weather has erased the rain deficit recorded during a drier than normal winter.

The Climate Prediction Center expects the warming trend to continue, forecasting a warmer than normal spring for the region. In Columbia, the average spring temperature is around 54 degrees, but every spring since 2015 has been warmer than average. The city's average spring temperature has increased 3.4 degrees since 1970, with 16 more warmer than normal days occurring between March and May.

Missouri is coming off an active period of severe weather. In 2025, the state recorded 98 tornadoes, which was significantly higher than the seasonal average of 30. These storms resulted in 16 deaths, the highest number of tornado fatalities in Missouri since the Joplin EF-5 tornado in 2011. Approximately 28% of those tornadoes were rated EF-2 or higher, which is well above the historical average.

The severity of the storms led to five FEMA disaster declarations within the state. Beyond the frequency of tornadoes, Missouri ranked third in the nation for the total number of tornado warnings issued during that season.

Last spring was also characterized by mild temperatures, averaging about three degrees warmer than normal.

We're currently monitoring a transition from a weak La Nina to ENSO neutral conditions. This shift means sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific will move closer to historical averages. For Mid-Missouri, this pattern typically brings variability as the polar jet stream stays to the north and the subtropical jet remains to the south across the Southeast.

Drought conditions are expected to improve across the region but will likely persist in parts of the Missouri Basin to our northwest. Seasonal river flooding is not expected this spring due to a lack of snow pack in the northwestern portion of the basin. However, repeated rounds of rain and storms may cause temporary water level rises on local streams and tributaries.

The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team expects spring temperatures to land between 1-3 degrees warmer than normal through the end of May. Rainfall is projected to be two to three inches above average for the season. The neutral global pattern is expected to produce more severe weather events than average with quiet stretches in between.