The different factors determining the type and amount of impacts for Sunday’s forecast
Winter-like weather is making a return for Central Missouri, and with that comes a complicated forecast. This is because of the stretch of warm spring weather that has been in place and will be in place leading up to Sunday. Today, temperatures got into the upper 50s, and tomorrow, upper 60s are expected. This means that ground temperatures will stay well above freezing and retain that heat before precipitation begins.
Starting Sunday, temperatures will still be much warmer than freezing, as a warm front will have moved through the day before. Throughout the day, a cold front from the west will move in, and behind it, a strong gradient of colder air will be making its way into the area. This gradient will come with strong northerly winds, leading to temperatures dropping from the 50s and 60s during the day into the 20s and teens by the end of the night.
Sunday will start rainy and potentially stormy due to the temperatures that are well above freezing, but as this strong temperature gradient rolls through, a transition from rain to eventually snow will occur. This is because the colder, denser air near the surface will push all of the warm, less dense air into the upper levels of the atmosphere until the cold layer is large enough to have precipitation completely transition into snow.
Even as the transition to below freezing temperatures occurs, warmer temperatures that have been in place and will be in place leading up to this event will lead to more complications. This is because the surfaces will retain this heat, and depending on the surface, different rates of accumulation will occur. Comparing an asphalt surface and a grassy surface, the asphalt will be slightly warmer due to its more efficient rate of absorbing heat. Once the sun sets, it takes longer for the asphalt to lose the same heat as the grassy surface, so temperatures over the grassy surface will reach below freezing temperatures first. Accumulation will then begin on the grass first before eventually accumulating on the asphalt, but before accumulation on the asphalt can begin, melting will be the most likely case.
Due to melting before temperatures get below freezing, black ice could then be an issue. This is a very thin layer of ice that accumulates on pavement, and the transparency helps the ice blend in with dark pavement, making it difficult to see. In Central Missouri's case, this will be mostly due to rainfall and snowmelt during the day before temperatures are cold enough, most likely occurring after sundown.
When driving in potentially icy conditions, it is always important to slow down and leave plenty of space between you and the car in front of you. Avoid sudden stops and hills, as sliding can easily occur in those situations. Ice won't be the only hazard, though, as strong winds throughout Sunday evening will lead to blowing snow and potentially near whiteout conditions for some. Similar to driving in icy conditions, make sure to slow down and leave plenty of space to make adjustments as needed. If possible, it will be a better idea to stay off the roads during this period of time.
