Weather Alert Day: Storms bring threat of all severe types tonight

The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day for the likelihood of strong storms tonight. Our most common threat will likely be damaging wind, but in a certain case scenario storms may be capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes.

Southwest wind flow brings warmer and more humid air to Mid-Missouri early in the week, with highs approaching the low 80s Tuesday. A wave of low pressure to our south will provide forcing for storms as moisture from the Gulf streams in and allows the atmosphere to build lots of potential energy during the day. We'll have plenty of instability and wind shear to create strong storm updrafts late in the day, but it remains a question when will we be able to access it.

Guidance still remains uncertain about how strong a cap will be in the lower atmosphere Tuesday afternoon. Depending on how soon we break that cap, storms could end up being more or less potent in the dinner hour to late evening hours.

If the cap, caused by a warm layer of air in the lower atmosphere, erodes, then development may start earlier in the evening and have more greater instability to use. This is the specific case in which storms would have the potential for very large hail and strong tornadoes. With later development, storms would still carry a risk for tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind but to a weaker extent.

Regardless of late afternoon or early evening development, storms are likely and will bring at least an isolated severe threat ahead of a cold front later in the night. The front will bring a sharp cool down by Wednesday, and an end to rain by lunch time on Wednesday afternoon.

Storms will pose the threat of all hazards, including large hail, damaging 60+ mph winds, and a few tornadoes. The large hail and tornado threat is largely tied to our late afternoon and early evening storms. This activity will pose the greatest risk if it can develop. The Storm Prediction Center has northeastern Missouri in a level 3/5 severe risk, where the best chance to see these early storms resides. However, a lesser risk does exit for all of Missouri for all severe threats.

Storms become more congealed with the potential of 1-2" total rainfall through Wednesday. Isolated flooding is possible, especially along low water crossings.

Make sure you have multiple ways to get alerts through the evening and stay ahead of the storm timeline with our news and weather apps. Set the weather app to follow your location to get watches and warnings for your area.