Why yesterday’s Groundhog Day prediction would suggest a shorter winter for Missouri
Yesterday, Groundhog Day, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow. This would mean that he is predicting 6 more weeks of winter rather than an early spring. At first, this might sound like the prediction is saying that Missouri has a much longer winter in store, but in reality, this prediction would be a much-welcomed change compared to how long winter weather has lasted in Missouri during previous years.
The meteorological start of spring is March 1st, but this prediction from Phil suggests that the winter weather will not end until mid-March. So, at first glance, there would be a "longer" winter season in place since the predicted end of winter is after the official start of spring.
But, the data suggests that even though this prediction is further away from the start of meteorological spring, Missouri often still experiences winter-like conditions in the form of frosts and freezes throughout the entirety of March and into April. Based on the historical average from 1991 to 2020, far Southern Missouri experiences its last freeze from March 15th through the 30th. Central Missouri typically sees its last freeze from April 1st to the 15th, and far Northern Missouri has its last freeze from April 16th to the 30th. So, if the groundhog's forecast plays out, this would mean that winter conditions, including frosts and freezes, would end earlier than what's been experienced in previous years for Missouri. This would lead to extra time to get a jump start on planting flowers or growing crops.
Although Punxsutawney Phil is the most well-known groundhog in the nation, it does not mean he is the most accurate by any means. Even though he has been making these predictions in Pennsylvania for over 139 years now, he is only correct in his predictions 35% of the time. This may make you want to throw out his forecast entirely, but there are more credible groundhogs out there that can help back up his claim that 6 more weeks of winter will happen. One example is the Staten Island Chuck in New York. Although he does not have as much experience under his belt as he has been forecasting for around 45 years now, he still has a much higher accuracy at 85%! Chuck saw his shadow as well yesterday morning, also suggesting that 6 more weeks of winter can be expected.
Even with these predictions in place, the current forecast for Missouri is looking rather warm. Over the next 7 days, both morning and afternoon temperatures are expected to be warmer than average for the beginning of February. This trend is expected to continue in the extended forecasts as well, with both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks predicting that Missouri will most likely continue to have temperatures well above average for this time of the year. This means that the more extreme winter weather that has been in place over the past couple of weeks will most likely not make a return, which could aid in making it feel less like winter moving forward.
