Climate Matters: Christmas warmth would be “impossible” without climate change
An incoming Christmas heat wave would be "virtually impossible" without the effects of a changing climate, according to meteorologists at the nonprofit Climate Central.
"Yeah, this probably likely would have been a warmer-than-average Christmas regardless. But the level that we're at, that's 30 degrees above average for some of us in Missouri, those temperatures would have been almost impossible without climate change," says Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at Climate Central.
Missouri will be feeling some of the worst impacts from climate change throughout this event, with Climate Central's Climate Shift Index (CSI) values maxing out at a level 5 in parts of northern Missouri on Christmas Day.
"When you get to a CSI level of four, it means four times more likely. Those temperatures would not be impossible, but rare without climate change." Winkley explains, "When you get the max number of CSI of five, so five times more likely, that's where that temperature that you're experiencing again, not completely impossible, but we know that a temperature like that in Missouri at the end of December, at the holidays would be virtually impossible without an influence of climate change."
Scientists are becoming more confident in attributing climate change to specific weather events, like heat waves and hurricanes, even before the event happens.
Climate attribution works by comparing the real world we live in, including the effects of carbon emissions, to a hypothetical environment without the effects of climate change. This allows scientists to filter out natural weather variability to see specific influences of climate change.
Winter is changing faster than any other season in Missouri. December temperatures have warmed by 5.7 degrees in Columbia in the last half-century, according to Climate Central.
This Christmas, multiple temperature records are in jeopardy. The record high in Columbia is 74 degrees on both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, set in 2021 and 1889, respectively. Low temperatures may also be the warmest on record; the record-warmest low temperature on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day is 54 and 53 degrees, set in 1936 and 1889.
