Climate Matters: Hurricane forecasting in turmoil as season begins
The United States is on the cusp of another above-average hurricane season while NOAA continues to work through federal funding cuts and loss of staffing.
Nearly 600 employees have been let go from the National Weather Service, but the agency is now reversing course and looking to fill over 100 critical vacant positions as hurricane season gets underway.
Dr. Anthony Lupo, a climate professor at the University of Missouri who also produces the university's hurricane season forecasts, is expecting a busy season ahead. "This year we can expect to see around 8 hurricanes, named hurricanes, and I think around 16 named storms," Lupo says. That is above average, and Mizzou has been a reliable hurricane forecaster recently.
"For the last 4 years, Mizzou has predicted the hurricane numbers exactly for 4 straight years, so we're under a little pressure this year to get it right," Lupo jokes.
These hurricane forecasts have become much more accurate in recent years with new technology. "The satellites that are up there now have much better resolution than they even had pre-COVID." Lupo says, "You can actually classify them much better, which before 2019 could be tricky even at that time."
Dr. Lupo says current funding cuts and loss of staffing are taking forecasting a step backward. "If you cut the data that's coming in, that's gonna affect how the models perform. The models perform better when there's more data available." He says, "So if you take some of that away, you're taking a step backwards."
