The Storm Prediction Center’s severe storm outlooks

The Storm Prediction Center issues outlooks every day, even when no severe weather is expected, to help meteorologists and scientists diagnose the type, severity, and extent of severe weather.

The outlooks produced by the Storm Prediction Center are just one of the many tools that can help forecasters identify where severe weather may occur and how intense it can be.

The severe threat is analyzed on a 5-tier scale through the first 3 days of a forecast. Each level describes the strength and coverage of storms.

Under a level 1 out of 5 risk, isolated and short-lived severe storms can be expected, and these become more scattered at a level 2. Storms are typically short-lived, not particularly strong at a level 2 risk.

At level 3, storm intensity and coverage start to ramp up. Numerous, potentially widespread severe storms are possible at a level 3 or higher, and some can be intense at this point.

Storms become even stronger and more widespread at a level 4, and the most intense severe storms can occur under a level 5 risk. Level 5 (high) risks are issued in only 2% of forecasts.

The Storm Prediction Center also issues outlooks up to eight days out. Beyond day 3, these outlooks are based on two tiers. These tiers represent areas with a 15% and 30% chance of severe weather. All Storm Prediction Center outlooks are based on percentages, which vary across time and by threat.

While these outlooks can be useful for meteorologists and scientists to diagnose the forecast for the day or several days out, it is important to check with your local meteorologists and where you're getting your weather information to get the best picture of what the outlook is telling you.