The week will end on a nice note with high pressure just to our west on Friday, keeping pleasant conditions around Mid-Missouri on Friday night.
The ABC 17 Stormtrack weather team has been tracking the potential for rain and storms over the weekend for the last several days, but there has been some uncertainty in the track of low pressure and its associated warm and cold fronts.
The frontal position will play a huge role in how our weekend will play out. As it stands, we'll likely see a few showers on Saturday morning on the northern side of the front as it's draped across southwest Missouri. Most of Saturday is dry, and if the front stays farther south, we'll likely remain in the lower 60s. The farther north the front lifts, the warmer the afternoon will be.
Low pressure moves into central Kansas in the afternoon, triggering strong to severe thunderstorms within the warm sector of the system, ahead of a cold front. As this whole system gets closer to us, clusters of thunderstorms are expected to grow upscale into a thunderstorm complex that rides along the frontal boundary Saturday night. That complex moves into Mid-Missouri along and north of the front late Saturday night, bringing heavy rain and potentially a few strong wind gusts initially. Heavy rain is expected to diminish by early afternoon to the east.
The more favorable environment for severe weather will lie to our west before midnight on Saturday, with a conditional threat for strong winds overnight into Sunday for our area. Rain amounts will be highest along I-70, with 1-2" likely, and potentially locally higher amounts where we have more intense thunderstorms.
The front will likely be far enough south on Sunday to rule out a severe weather threat for Mid-Missouri. We'll likely be cooler in the low 60s on Sunday behind this system, scoring some dry time to close out Mother's Day weekend.