Thursday Night Update: A line of strong storms capable of producing damaging winds is pushing into our far northern counties along Highway 36 and will continue to pose a damaging wind and large hail threat into the overnight hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 5AM for areas along and west of Highway 54.
The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day for Thursday. Storms look to push in by afternoon and evening and will pose a threat of large hail and damaging winds as they do.
We've been tracking a warm front that brought back the return of some more seasonal weather. Unfortunately, seasonal weather this time of year can be a ripe environment for strong to severe storms at times.
A warm front to our north leaves us in the warm, moist air originating from the Gulf of Mexico. With a fairly flat-flowing jet stream, multiple disturbances can move through. This firehose of disturbances will run into a stubborn boundary draped around the area. This will lead to daily storm chances but we may be able to put a few more ingredients for severe weather together Thursday.
With this latest round of storms, the primary threat appears to be damaging winds. This looks to hinge on the evolution of this system. There's two different time-frames that storms could appear in. The first is before the front moves in. If these materialize, large hail and possibly even a tornado would be the threats along with winds. With later storms growing upscale into more of a linear mode overnight, those pose primarily a wind risk. Things are trending more toward the linear option overnight as a better bet with the evening scenario still iffy.
Another threat that we will have to deal with is the amount of rain with repeated rounds of storms. We're expecting a widespread 1-2" around the area, with some areas receiving more than that by Sunday.
We're starting to notice that the overnight storms appear to bring the best potential for wider coverage. However, prefrontal storms will be possible through 9-10 PM. The prefrontal storms will have to bust through a pretty strong cap in place. The overnight storms which are a safer bet will move through around 10PM-4AM. Timing is still flexible at this point, so stay with ABC 17 Stormtrack weather as the situation develops.