How unusual will this next round of cold be?
Several rounds of arctic cold are set to plunge into mid-Missouri in the next 10 days. The first will arrive Thursday and Friday bringing temperatures that will be 15-20 degrees below average. But, as we mentioned in last night's insider blog, even colder weather is likely on the way as we start out next week.
With the latest round of weather data today, overnight temperatures falling into the teens next week is looking more likely. When you look back at past weather data, it illustrates just how impressive next week's cold snap will be.
When you take all November temperature data over the past 110 years, the odds of seeing temperatures fall into the teens is fairly low, right around 13%.
Some weather model data has been even colder, in the single digits. (Keep in mind, this is not a FORECAST for single digits, it is simply one of the MANY solutions we are considering for our outlook next week.)
The odds of seeing that type of cold are rare, less than 1% in the past 110 years. It's something we've only seen twice in the past 28 years-- in 2014, and the exceptionally cold November of 1991.
The good(ish) news:
Next week's bout of bitter cold looks like it will only last a few days before temperatures moderate. However, long-range data continues that even though we warm slightly, temperatures will still be below average for a majority of this month.
-Luke
