Weather Alert Day: Severe threat diminishing Wednesday night, returns Friday

The severe threat for Wednesday night continues across southern Missouri, but has largely diminished for Mid-Missouri with light rain through midnight. The focus will shift to the risk for severe storms on Friday ahead of a strong cold front.

SETUP

Another severe threat is developing on Friday. After a break from thunderstorm activity on Thursday, thanks to upper-level ridging, another long-wave trough is set to enter the plains from the northern Rockies. This, coupled with a strong cold front, could bring even more forcing for the highest severe potential we have seen all week.

FUTURETRACK

Strong storms continue to bring a risk for localized flooding across areas south of I-44 late Wednesday night, but Thursday is expected to be dry with weak high pressure ridging in place ahead of the next system.

Storms on Friday will fire up by late afternoon or early evening as instability is maximized, along with ample low to mid-level wind shear and high dew points in the 60s.

There have been struggles with the forecast in the past days. Guidance has had difficulty depicting storm initiation and evolution, leading to expectations that differ from reality. Still, based on the general setup across the region today, confidence is greater that storms will develop and move through the region today. The source of uncertainty largely centers on the instability expected this afternoon, but it's worth noting that this uncertainty may be decreasing slightly with recent forecast developments.

Friday's setup is also taking shape now, as an area of surface low pressure is forecast to lift a warm front north of the region, boosting storm energy and moisture once again. Given wind profiles, support for severe weather will exist south of the warm front and east of the cold front. Timing and expectations are being drawn with a broad brush for now, but details will be added to this blog when they become clear.

HAZARDS

Severe storms will be capable of at least quarter-size hail, 60+ mph winds, and a few tornadoes on Wednesday. These threats are likely to be repeated to some extent on Friday, but potentially in greater numbers. Make sure you have our ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App for the latest updates to the forecast. A NOAA weather radio is also useful for receiving geotargeted alerts when cell service is poor or storms move through at night.