Weather Alert Day: Severe storms possible Wednesday night and Friday
The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team continues its Weather Alert Day for Wednesday and Friday for the potential of severe storms that could produce strong winds, hail, and possible tornadoes.
A Tornado Watch is in effect for western Missouri until 9:00 p.m., including Mid-Missouri counties along Highway 65 up toward Moberly and Macon.
SETUP
By Wednesday night, there's greater potential for storms to develop in or much closer to mid-Missouri, increasing the likelihood of severe weather. Part of this is the greater drops in pressure aloft with an approaching upper-level trough. Early-day rain and clouds limiting instability have been a question surrounding Wednesday's severe threat, but it remains likely that storm energy will be bolstered as an unstable airmass moves in ahead of the upper trough and associated surface low. Especially with a lack of deep convection across the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, we may not have much to interfere with this incoming airmass.
Another severe threat is developing on Friday. After a break from thunderstorm activity on Thursday, thanks to upper-level ridging, another long-wave trough is set to enter the plains from the northern Rockies.
FUTURETRACK
Storms have already weakened below severe limits overnight. Scattered showers and weak storms linger in the wake of dissipated storms through Wednesday morning, as they drift northeast. Then, as previously mentioned, atmosphere recovery and other supports will likely initiate storms this afternoon.
There have been struggles with the forecast in the past days. Guidance has had difficulty depicting storm initiation and evolution, leading to expectations that differ from reality. Still, based on the general setup across the region today, confidence is greater that storms will develop and move through the region today. The source of uncertainty largely centers on the instability expected this afternoon, but it's worth noting that this uncertainty may be decreasing slightly with recent forecast developments.
Friday's setup is also taking shape now, as an area of surface low pressure is forecast to lift a warm front north of the region, boosting storm energy and moisture once again. Given wind profiles, support for severe weather will exist south of the warm front and east of the cold front. Timing and expectations are being drawn with a broad brush for now, but details will be added to this blog when they become clear.
HAZARDS
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 2/5 risk for severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday, indicating isolated to scattered severe storms are possible.
Severe storms will be capable of at least quarter-size hail, 60+ mph winds, and a few tornadoes on Wednesday. These threats are likely to be repeated to some extent on Friday, but potentially in greater numbers. Make sure you have our ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App for the latest updates to the forecast. A NOAA weather radio is also useful for receiving geotargeted alerts when cell service is poor or storms move through at night.
