Weather Alert Day: Severe storms possible late Tuesday and Wednesday

The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day from late Tuesday through Wednesday for the potential of severe storms as a strong wave of low pressure tracks east across the Plains.

Showers and storms are possible on Sunday, but no severe weather is expected this weekend.

SETUP

Looking ahead to next week, instability increases significantly in the first few days of the week as upper winds wrap around low pressure and draw in warm, moist air from the southwest.

While we'll have a lot of instability on Monday, a "cap" of warmer air above the surface will prevent storms from developing, and a dry line remains far west of the area across Kansas and Oklahoma.

Jet stream winds will be maximized over Mid-Missouri on Tuesday, making that day the most favorable for severe storms that could pose all hazards. Low to mid-level wind shear will be highest on Tuesday, and we'll have unstable air in place ahead of the cold front that will act as a forcing mechanism for storms.

Severe storms may continue into early Wednesday, with more development possible ahead of the cold front during the day. However, this highly depends on how quickly the front moves through the area, which remains uncertain.

HAZARDS

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 1/5 risk of severe storms west of the area on Monday, where an isolated severe storm is possible. This risk shifts east midweek, with all of Mid-Missouri under a 2/5 risk for severe storms late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Severe storms will be capable of at least quarter-size hail, 60+ mph winds, and a few tornadoes. Make sure you have our ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App for the latest updates to the forecast.