Weather Alert Day: Severe storms possible early next week

The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day from late Monday through late Tuesday night for the potential of severe storms as a strong wave of low pressure works east across the Plains. The time frame for the Weather Alert Day may shift or bleed into Wednesday depending on the speed of the system and its associated cold front.

Showers and storms are possible between Friday and Sunday as a stalled front finally moves south Thursday night, but severe weather isn't expected.

Looking to next week, instability increases significantly the first few days of the week as upper winds wrap around low pressure and pull in from the southwest, drawing in warm, moist air.

While we'll have a lot of instability on Monday, we may end up having a "cap" in place for a lot of the day, a layer of warmer air just above the surface that could act as a lid on storm development. We also will be a bit farther away from the best forcing, or lift to get storms to grow with that low still to our west.

Jet stream winds will be maximized over Mid-Missouri on Tuesday, making that day the most favorable for severe storms that could pose all hazards. Low to mid-level wind shear will be highest on Tuesday, and we'll have unstable air in place ahead of the cold front that will act as a forcing mechanism.

The Storm Prediction Center has most of Mid-Missouri highlighted in a level 2/5, or "slight" risk of severe storms between Monday and Wednesday. Over the weekend, as new data comes in, we'll be able to better fine tune storm arrival and exit times as well as indicate the locations with the highest risk.

Severe storms will be capable of at least quarter size hail, 60+ mph winds, and a few tornadoes. Make sure you have our ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App to get updates as we narrow down the severe weather timeline over the weekend.