Weather Alert Day: Damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail possible Friday

Severe storms are likely on Friday, an ABC17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day.

SETUP

Another severe threat is developing on Friday. After a break from thunderstorm activity on Thursday, thanks to upper-level ridging, another long-wave trough is set to enter the plains from the northern Rockies. This will drive a strong cold front that will bring the most well-organized severe potential we have seen all week.

FUTURETRACK

Strong storms continue to bring a risk for localized flooding across areas south of I-44 late Wednesday night, but Thursday is expected to be mostly dry. A few isolated afternoon storms are expected near I-44, but these do not pose a severe risk.

Friday's surface low pressure is forecast to lift a warm front north of the region, boosting storm energy and moisture once again. Given winds aloft, and strong levels of instability, support for severe weather will exist south of the warm front and east of the cold front. Timing centers on late afternoon into the evening, as development should remain near the low and associated cold front.

At initiation, instability is maximized, along with ample low to mid-level wind shear and high dew points in the 60s. Lapse rates aloft will encourage strong storms and a quick transition to severe weather.

Confidence is high that storms will develop and become severe. Concern is increasing for a severe wind threat, specifically. Some uncertainty remains surrounding the timing and placement of intitial storms and therefore what follows into the night.

HAZARDS

Severe storms will be capable of up to golf ball-sized hail, 70+ mph winds, and strong tornadoes on Friday. Our greatest concern is for numerous instances of damaging wind, with potential for considerable wind speeds of 70-75 mph. In such events, you will want to be in a sturdy structure away from windows. It's also not a bad idea to tidy up your property and secure objects that could easily catch the wind and blow away, or become dangerous as a flying object. Make sure you have our ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App for the latest updates to the forecast. A NOAA weather radio is also useful for receiving geotargeted alerts when cell service is poor or storms move through at night.