Weather Alert Day: Damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail possible Friday

An ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day is in effect for the threat of severe storms through late Friday night. Storms have already started developing across far western and northwest Missouri, and have quickly become severe. A Tornado Watch is in effect until 9:00 p.m. for areas west of the red line, and until 11:00 p.m. for those to the east, including Columbia and Jefferson City.

SETUP

A strong low pressure system across the Plains will drag a front across a very moist, unstable environment this afternoon into the evening, bringing the threat of all modes of severe weather.

FUTURETRACK

Friday's surface low pressure is forecast to lift a warm front north of the region, boosting storm energy and moisture once again. Given winds aloft and strong levels of instability, support for severe weather will exist south of the warm front and east of the cold front. Timing centers on the late afternoon into the evening, as isolated development appears possible ahead of the front in the warm sector, before merging into a line of storms along the front.

At initiation, instability is maximized, along with ample low to mid-level wind shear and high dew points in the 60s. Lapse rates aloft will encourage strong storms and a quick transition to severe weather.

Confidence is high that storms will develop and become severe. Concern is increasing for a severe wind threat, specifically. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and placement of intitial storms and, therefore, what follows into the night.

HAZARDS

Severe storms will be capable of up to golf ball-sized hail, 70+ mph winds, and strong tornadoes on Friday. Our greatest concern is for numerous instances of damaging wind, with potential for considerable wind speeds of 70-75 mph. In such events, you will want to be in a sturdy structure away from windows. It's also not a bad idea to tidy up your property and secure objects that could easily catch the wind and blow away, or become dangerous as a flying object.

Flooding is also a concern, as heavy and prolonged rainfall could be an issue behind the initial threat of damaging storms. 1-2 inches, with isolated higher amounts, could create flooding in vulnerable areas. Be mindful of areas that flood easily and low water crossings. Just a foot of moving water can sweep most cars away, and 6 inches is enough to knock over a person.

Make sure you have our ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App for the latest updates to the forecast. A NOAA weather radio is also useful for receiving geotargeted alerts when cell service is poor or storms move through at night.