Weather Alert Day: Active pattern threatens severe storms Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday
The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day from late Tuesday through Wednesday, and again on Friday for severe thunderstorm potential.
SETUP
Temperatures reached the mid-80s on Tuesday, with plenty of instability and moisture for storms to feed off of and sustain into the night.
Part of this equation will be moist air working in ahead of a dry line to our west. Monday night's storms in Kansas fired along the dry line, and we expect to see something similar Tuesday night. If storms develop along the northern stretch of the dry line, we can expect a sooner arrival of storms that will be a bit stronger. The most likely solution looks more similar to what we had on Monday; storms arriving from the west and weakening with time. There is another, less likely solution that a concentrated moisture pocket could help erode a cap that will otherwise keep us dry across the region until sunset.
This is the first of a two-day setup for us, as another chance for severe storms is forecast for Wednesday.
Another threat of severe weather is developing on Friday. After a break from thunderstorm activity on Thursday, thanks to upper-level ridging, another long-wave trough is set to enter the plains from the northern Rockies.
FUTURETRACK
The best sources of convergence for storm development will be a warm front well north of us and a dry line just west of us. The dry line is where dry and warm air meet, and often creates rising air that could be a trigger for storms on Tuesday evening, much like it was on Monday. This is what will likely trigger storms in Kansas and Oklahoma, but the dry line is less aided by upper-level disturbances this far north.
Storms will weaken below severe limits late in the night. Scattered showers and storms develop on Wednesday morning. This could hamper another round of strong-to-severe storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Still, some recovery of the atmosphere appears possible, and we will be monitoring for storms capable of severe hazards.
Friday's setup is less certain, but an area of surface low pressure is forecast to lift a warm front north of the region, boosting storm energy and moisture once again. Given wind profiles, support for severe weather will exist south of the warm front and east of the cold front. Timing and expectations are being drawn with a broad brush for now, but details will be added to this blog when they become clear.
HAZARDS
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 2/5 risk for severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday, indicating isolated to scattered severe storms are possible.
Severe storms will be capable of at least quarter-size hail, 60+ mph winds, and a few tornadoes both Tuesday and Wednesday. These threats are likely to be repeated to some extent on Friday. Make sure you have our ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App for the latest updates to the forecast. A NOAA weather radio is also useful for receiving geotargeted alerts when cell service is poor or storms move through at night.
