Tracking a gradual warm up on Tuesday

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy and cool with lows near 40 degrees.

TOMORROW: Mostly sunny and warmer with highs in the mid-upper 60s.

EXTENDED: After a chilly start to the week, we begin warming back up tomorrow as upper high pressure slowly begins to work back in our direction and strengthens from the west. Winds shift to the south, allowing temperatures to warm slightly above average into the 60s on Tuesday. A weak disturbance could bring a few clouds through the region. Wednesday into Thursday will be the warmest day of the week with the high pressure system overhead, sending temperatures to near 80 on Wednesday and approaching record highs in the upper 80s on Thursday. Low pressure centered over the Great Lakes later in the week will send a cold front to our north by Thursday morning, and a warmer layer of air known as a capping inversion develops, keeping thunderstorms at bay through the afternoon. If the front is progressive enough, it could force the cap to break and severe thunderstorms would be possible late in the day and into the evening. It's also possible the cap holds and any storms hold off until the front moves through and are more elevated, lowering the severe risk Thursday night into Friday. The Storm Prediction Center currently has northeast Missouri in a level 2/5 risk for severe weather for this time frame. Behind the front, we'll end up with about 0.25 to 0.5" rain and cooler air to end the week as we'll fall into the 50s on Friday with upper 50s and sunshine returning by Saturday.