Insider Blog: Tracking dry start to holiday weekend ahead of rain and snow chances

Much colder air is settling into Mid-Missouri ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with dry travel conditions the next few days before rain and snow return Friday night.

A cold front moved through the region Tuesday evening, opening the door to arctic air as high pressure returns and northwest winds pick up. Jet stream winds increase right over us on Wednesday, allowing surface winds to pick up to around 25-30 mph early on Wednesday, giving us a wind chill in the 20s in the morning. Afternoon feels like temperatures will be in the 30s on Wednesday, but conditions remain dry through the day and winds die down toward evening.

Thanksgiving morning looks cold for turkey trot races around Mid-Missouri, with sunrise temperatures in the mid-upper 20s. Winds remain light and sunshine returns, making for a pleasant looking afternoon despite highs only reaching the low 40s.

Clouds slowly begin to stream in on Friday ahead of low pressure that will slowly lift a warm front across the area. This is where the track and timing of low pressure will come into play, as a shift toward a southerly track across southern Missouri or northern Arkansas could mean more wintry precipitation and a northerly track could mean more rain. Either way, precipitation looks to begin on Friday night from the north, filling in on Saturday.

The most likely area to see snow accumulation on Friday night through Saturday morning will be northeast Missouri over along the Mississippi River into Illinois. There will be a transition from snow to rain early in the day, but that timing will also depend on the speed and track of low pressure as warmer winds pick up from the south.

Saturday looks soggy with temperatures in the upper 30s. As the back side of low pressure exits east Saturday night, there could be a brief window of a rain/snow mix with little impacts to road conditions. Road temperatures will continue to be above freezing as ground temperatures have been warm, so re-freeze issues aren't expected with cold rain exiting Saturday night.

Sunday into early next week is looking dry but quite chilly as a colder air mass moves in behind the cold front. Highs only make the low to mid-30s with morning temperatures in the 20s.

Make sure you have the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather app no matter where you plan to travel this holiday weekend and set your location to GPS to get alerts and the hourly forecast.