Sub-seasonal forecast for late July through September

As we roll our way into late July, many people might have vacation time on their mind ahead of the upcoming school year. One of the most important factors in a successful vacation during the late summer months is the weather.

We are taking a look at the sub-seasonal forecast lasting from late July through September.

When looking at long-term forecast. The primary two variables forecasted for are temperatures and precipitation. These two factors play a large roll in travel and enjoying the vacation time.

When forecasting out into further time periods extending greater than seven days, temperatures and precipitation are split into three separate categories, above average, near average, or below average.

Starting into late July, winds predominately are expected to remain out of the south prompting above average temperatures with Missouri being near the bullseye of this possible heat wave. To put in perspective, average highs in Columbia, Missouri remain at 89 degrees throughout the remainder of July.

Precipitation forecasts lasting throughout the end of July remain near average allowing for the end of month rainfall totals to most likely remain near average as well. This would ensure healthy saturation across the region keeping Mid-Missouri out of drought.

When looking into the three-month outlook encompassing July, August, and September, the entirety of the lower 48 states in the U.S. are expected to remain above average. This is in part due to the forecast of the ENSO-Neutral pattern throughout the remainder of the late summer and early fall months.

To put into perspective what above average temperatures could look like, the graph above depicts the average highs in Columbia, Missouri for the month of August.

Thanks to the ENSO-Neutral pattern, conditions for rainfall are expected to remain near average throughout this three month time period. This would also most likely lead to stable saturation of the region and most of the area staying clear of surges in drought.

These forecasts are wide-scale averages of their forecasted time periods. There will still most likely be sporadic cases of large downpours of rainfall during this time-period in some areas, but as a whole the region shouldn't expect large multi-day events of substantial rain.