Storm timing crucial for severity of overnight storms

With more storms on the way and an ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day being issued beginning Tuesday night at midnight lasting through 9 PM Wednesday, many people might be waking up in the middle of the night to stronger storms. The good news is, storms eventually will lose strength deeper into the late overnight hours and early morning hours thanks to timing. Storm timing can play an important role in determining storm intensity.

It's no surprise that temperatures typically fall as we head deeper into the overnight hours. This means there less heat in the environment.

Heat is looked as a fuel for storms since it is a form of energy. During the day, the sun heats the earth's surface. Eventually, this causes the air just above the surface to warm through convection and rise.

This rising motion paired with other ingredients such as moisture then leads to the growth of storms.

The above graphic displays instability caused by CAPE (Convective, Available, Potential, Energy) at 6 PM Tuesday afternoon. As the sun has more time to heat the earth's surface as the day goes on, the build up of this heat causes increased rising motions fueling the potential for stronger storms.

There is a slight delay towards the evening and early overnight hours on the levels of energy in the environment. This is caused by the surface temperatures of the earth still radiating heat stored from the sun throughout the day. As more energy in the form of heat is given off from the surface of the earth than that is supplied to the earth from pervious sunlight, the earth's surface begins to cool decreasing the energy in the environment.

The same model shows the instability in the form of CAPE at 4 AM Wednesday morning. You can notice the substantially decreased levels of energy in the environment at this time. Strong to severe storms are less likely to occur during the late overnight hours and early morning hours for this reason. A storm that occurs during the 6 PM hours shown on the previous graphic would most likely be stronger than one given the same environment as that of the 4 AM hour.

Meteorologist use this process to help trigger focus times for storm growth. There are scenarios however where late overnight and early morning storms can remain strong to severe. This is less likely and requires increased levels of other ingredients such as shear to rise substantially.