Weather Alert Day: A few strong storms overnight into Tuesday morning

The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day from late tonight into tomorrow morning for the potential of severe storms.

SETUP

An upper-level system has pushed an area of low pressure into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Moisture increases ahead of this system while dry air sharply filters in behind it, setting up a boundary known as a dryline between moist and dry air.

Near the dryline, and further north toward the center of low pressure, winds will also increase and provide the best support for severe weather during the day on Monday. Storms that initiate ahead of the dryline on Monday will be capable of all hazards and could impact northwestern Missouri by late afternoon.

In Mid-Missouri, we are more confident in severe storms arriving with the cold front on Monday night, where all hazards remain possible.

FUTURETRACK

Storms are struggling to stay severe across northwest Missouri as they encounter an atmospheric cap, a warm layer of air above the surface preventing storms from developing. A few strong storms are possible, but are more likely near the cold front closer to sunrise for areas along I-44. The severe risk on Tuesday will be highest along and south of the cold front in southern Missouri.

HAZARDS

The overall severe threat will be low overnight, but a few storms could produce isolated strong wind gusts between 50-60 mph and small hail from penny to quarter size. The attention will turn to isolated flash flooding starting Tuesday night for areas south of Highway 50 where a Flood Watch is in effect. More than 2" of rainfall is possible between Tuesday and Thursday morning.

Make sure you have multiple ways to stay weather aware, including the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App, which can provide local weather alerts for your location.