How weather impacts local turkey populations

The Eastern Turkey is one of the most impressive success stories for conservation in the state of Missouri. Weather is a major influence in the population numbers each year.

Wild turkey populations in the state of Missouri were estimated at just under 2500 in the 1950s. Nowadays, that number is between 300,000- 400,000.

Thanks to conservation practices, this number continues to remain healthy, but major population swings can happen year to year with weather being the main driver.

John Burk is a senior regional biologist for the National Wild Turkey Federation and explains how precipitation has a direct impact on turkey populations, "Rainy, rainy springs, um, equates to, you know, poor production. Every time we get a wet spring production drops every time we get a dry spring production goes up." Rainfall totals during the spring months plays the most important role in turkey population numbers as flooding can negatively impact future population totals.

Nick Oakley is a state turkey biologist for the Missouri Department of Conservation and explains why high rainfall events during this time of the year could spell trouble, "Above average precipitation leads to a lot of localized flooding, and our turkeys tend to nest in low lying areas, stream bottoms and things like creek bottoms, so we can lose a lot of nests if we see much flooding at all."

The current drought monitor map shows much of the region in at least dry to moderate drought.

This is good news for turkey populations currently across our region, but hunters further to the east and southeast of Mid-Missouri could see negative impacts, as the last major rainfall event we had has led to increasing flooding, prompting poor nesting conditions for areas seen in dark green and blue.

The good news is there is some excitement for this upcoming turkey season as outlooks look positive for the 2025 season. Most hunters harvest two year old birds, so looking back is important for this year's harvest numbers. Nick Oakley explains, "So two years ago, production was really, really good in Missouri, and I would expect to see another good year of turkey numbers in Missouri. I'd say, projecting forward, we're in a in a stable, stable situation with the turkey population."

Hopefully this good news will transfer over into your upcoming hunting season. Make sure to stay tuned for next week's edition of the ABC 17 Stormtrack Insider Outdoors as we will look into the best weather for hunters to be out in.