Tracking severe storm potential ahead of daily rain chances and a cooldown
TODAY: Wednesday is an ABC17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day. We expect a line of thunderstorms near Kansas City early this morning, to slowly work east. Ahead of it, our nocturnal low level jet will be ramping up, and aiding the already fast winds. This will help enhance shear and potentially sustain better low level instability. This is why the National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for portions of the area through mid-Morning. It is expected for these storms to weaken as they move east into a less suitable environment for storms. With this said, we'll all have a chance for gusty winds and possibly some hail with this line as it moves in. The tornado threat should wane as this line pushes east. Storms will intensify again, but current expectations are for this to be to a modest extent, with the greatest threat east of mid-Missouri. This is as storms may exit the region by the noon hour, leaving before the peak heating and instability hours.
TONIGHT: Quiet weather returns this afternoon, when highs reach mid-70s with clearing skies. Clear skies stick around overnight, but clouds rejoin us around sunrise Thursday. Temperatures fall to near 50 and winds shift from the west, before becoming variable.
EXTENDED: We will be just north of the cold front that will turn into a stationary boundary over northern Arkansas. This will turn into a very stagnant but active pattern. Stagnant in that the stationary boundary sits put for several days; active, in that the upper atmosphere will send a constant stream of moisture and disturbances along this boundary, producing waves of rain and storms near and around it the rest of the week. Here on the north side of the boundary, that means daily rain chances to the tune of several inches with bouts of thunder for some, but no severe weather. You'll likely have a lawn to mow soon, if you don't already! We'll cool through this process, with highs expected in the 50s and 60s Thursday and Friday, with most cooling into the 50s over the weekend. Rain wraps up Saturday night, leaving us drier Sunday through Tuesday.
