Winter weather forecast confidence
Each year as the seasons change from fall to winter, there is a mass influx of forecast seen online via social media. These forecast typical depict winter weather storms. You might notice these forecast with eye-catching titles explaining of events such as a record breaking snow storm, or a deadly ice storm multiple weeks away. At first glance, you might be instantly worried and click on links forecasting these events. But don't let the shock of these titles drive you towards an increased heart-rate as a majority of these post are created to grab your attention using unlikely case scenarios based on extended model runs.
A guide you should use when determining how invested you should be in if these forecast are likely, should be based on the graphic above. Typically anything under six days is more in-line with a possible case scenario. Even though the confidence varies depending on timing and which models are producing the best and most realistic results.
The most trusted entities to receive your forecast from are typically your local news meteorologists such as the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team and those at your local National Weather Service office. Both entities have experience and an education in forecasting and are aware of local weather patterns to make the most accurate forecast.
As models forecast further away in timespan, the margin of error increases significantly for winter weather related events. This could mean a forecasted blizzard several weeks could end up turning into a sunny and warmer day when it actually comes into scope. Thats why forecasts are typically more broad as time from the event increases. Forecast posting snowfall and ice totals greater than six days typically have a very low accuracy. Thats why most meteorologist typical wait to issue a detailed forecast to within five days or less. Make sure to keep this mind this winter when your friends or family send you that next post detailing an unlikely case outside of the 6 day timespan.
