Tracking off and on showers, dry time, and evening storms Wednesday
TODAY: Wednesday is a complicated forecast, as we'll have off and on chances for rain, especially in the morning, but also plenty of dry time. Additionally, if we have enough dry time and even some sunshine, we could enhance our chance for rain late in the day. Starting this morning, showers and weak storms are drifting in from the west. As they push into mid-Missouri, they will progressively weaken. I do not expect measurable rain from this first round, in fact latest guidance is suggesting it completely dries up before reaching most locally. Still, we'll keep a low chance in the forecast. We will also have a chance for showers to develop near Columbia and southeast where clouds will be in greater coverage through late morning into the early afternoon. Generally dry weather is expected for much of the day, with hit and miss showers for folks possible in this southeastern half of the viewing area. A break in clouds is possible just back to the west of Columbia and Jefferson City. If the break in cloud cover lasts long enough, we will greatly increase our instability, primarily in the west near Sedalia and Marshall. This is where we could see some isolated strong storms as a cold front arrives tonight. The severe threat is low, but the chance for heavy rain is better with storms that can tap into greater instability. These will be our ticket to significant measurable rainfall. Temperatures today are largely dependent on rain, clouds, and sunshine. I've gone a little less conservative on temps, in favor of more sunshine in the afternoon. It is beginning to look like we could have another day in the low 80s for some. Again, if clouds hang on, temperatures look like mid-to-upper 70s.
TONIGHT: Showers and storms could trigger near I-44 to Jefferson City as soon as this afternoon thanks to a low level jet that is partially responsibly for our southeastern clouds earlier in the day. Otherwise, most will have to wait until after the dinner hour before rain arrives. The cold front arrives, bringing storms to our western most counties near 7 p.m., and closer to Columbia and Jefferson City around 8 to 9 p.m. These storms will also have a weakening trend, but could bring steady rain chances areawide. This is highly dependent on clouds earlier in the day. For example, this solution is a recent development, and wasn't obvious in most data just 24 hours ago. Temperatures will gradually fall into the 60s behind rain into early Thursday.
EXTENDED: Some straggling showers remain Thursday morning, but are generally wrapping up by noon, if not sooner. Part of this is due to another cold front that arrives late Thursday morning. This will reinforce cooler air with a cool and dry air mass ushered in by stout northwest flow. From here, we're dry and cool, with sunshine and 60s through the weekend. Notably, we'll cool to the low 40s Saturday morning, and upper 30s Sunday, raising the frost question. Otherwise, we warm back into the 70s early next week.
