Recent above-average rainfall not likely to last

Much of Mid-Missouri is already well ahead of schedule for rainfall this month thanks to frequent heavy storms to kick off August. We actually ended July just under our monthly rainfall, but a quick pattern change to near-daily storm chances in the last weeks pushed numbers up quickly. Columbia and Jefferson City are both over 2 inches above rainfall for this month just a week in.

This excessive rain is due to the jet stream nearby on the fringe of a slowly weakening heat dome. This setup brings steady rain chances along the stream of moisture, and this has been located right overhead for weeks. But long-term forecasts suggest the jet stream will likely shift north the second half of August and bring rainfall to more typical levels.