Active pattern bringing above-average rain could improve drought this month

Much of the early summer in Mid-Missouri has been hot and dry, keeping moisture levels low and leading to sparse rainfall for several months. Extreme drought conditions have proliferated in Central Missouri as we fall behind by several inches of rain, but a pattern change is already underway as we begin July.

High pressure dominated the upper level flow last month, blocking the jet stream from sending disturbances and rain chances across much of the Midwest. This pattern has now shifted, bringing the jet stream overhead, and opening the region to above-average rainfall for the next few weeks.

Several rounds of heavy rain are expected within this next week, and the forecast for drought through the end of the month brings a good outlook. We are expected to improve drought areawide, though dry conditions will still persist. Drought is a long-term process that lingers even after the first round of relieving rain, and it will take consistent adequate rainfall to entirely squash the dry conditions.