Tracking plenty of storm chances in the week ahead
TONIGHT: I am tracking scattered storm chances right around when the sun will be setting, with the highest chances in the northern part of Missouri and our forecasted viewing area. The most likely scenario for the viewing area is rain, thunder/lightning, and possible hail. The northern part of Missouri could see a tornado watch issued depending on how the systems perform. We are tracking a stronger cap overall, meaning the severe chances are low for these systems, but there is plenty of energy in the atmosphere with the current temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
TOMORROW: A similar setup to today is being observed, especially with the chances for isolated storms across Mid-MO. With these systems, there is a bit less of a cap, meaning higher chances of it to break as the temperatures work their way back into the upper 80s, possibly 90 by the end of the day. This means that there could be higher chances for stronger isolated thunderstorms, also bringing in the slight probability we experience severe weather. The SPC has a slight risk of severe weather including the northern half of the viewing area, right to the north of I-70.
EXTENDED: Monday is the day bringing up the most concern, as we have a cold front moving through the area. With the amount of energy available in the atmosphere, in other words temperatures making their way up into the mid-80s once again, and this cold air forcing its way under the warmer air, we could see stronger scattered storms, with some of them having the chance of being severe. The SPC has put central Missouri extending into St. Louis in the slight risk area for their day-3 convective outlook, having us in the highest risk area overall at 2/5. For the rest of the week, we see temperatures staying strong in the low to mid 60s for lows and mid 80s for highs. Along with this, there are chances for scattered storms and showers spread throughout the entire week, all right around a 30% chance of seeing rain each day after these main systems.
