Insider Blog: Shifting to a hot and stormy summer like pattern by this weekend
The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather team is tracking a major pattern shift as warmer than average temperatures return to Mid-Missouri along with almost daily isolated storm chances.
The upper level high pressure system that was centered over us early in the weak has begun to break down, and more of a southwesterly flow will set up over the weekend and continue into next week. That will usher in much warmer temperatures as highs soar into the 80s each day starting on Saturday.
The low level jet stream will start funneling in more moisture to the region, increasing humidity by the weekend. That will help increase instability to fuel storm development along a front that will initially move through Mid-Missouri on Saturday, and waver over the region into next week. That front will provide a focus for at least a chance for isolated storms each day.
The front will lift to our north early on Saturday, allowing instability to grow in the warm sector between the warm and cold front. However, what's called a capping inversion, or warm layer of air above the surface, is likely to act as a lid for storms to develop for much of the day. That means much of the day will be hot and breezy, but an isolated strong storm or two could develop around sunset if that warm layer can erode. If isolated storms do develop, a few could be strong with large hail and brief strong winds. The Storm Prediction Center has most of the region in a level 2 or slight risk for severe storms on Saturday. Hail and damaging winds are likely threats, but a tornado cannot be ruled out.
That front is expected to migrate through the region Sunday into next week, giving us a low chance for scattered storms almost each day. The jet stream will not shift much, meaning the southwest flow will keep temperatures much above average through the week.
Rain amounts will likely end up under 1" through the next 7 days, though we desperately need rainfall as we're almost 5" below average since the beginning of meteorological spring on March 1. Most of Mid-Missouri has only seen 15-25% of its normal rain in the last 30 days.