University of Missouri submits 2023 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane forecast
Most people typically only worry about the current weather or the timespan out to a couple of days. At the University of Missouri, that Atmospheric Sciences department are already looking ahead to this years upcoming 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1st and last through November 30th for the United States. Dr. Anthony Lupo, Joseph Renken, and Sarah Weaver at the University of Missouri just submitted their Atlantic Ocean Basin Tropical forecast to Colorado State University. A conglomerate of entities including the private sector of meteorology, governmental, and even universities submit their forecast every year to Colorado State university in efforts to facilitate a better effort in long-range forecasting practices. The climatological average sits at seven hurricanes during the typical season. The Mizzou team this year will be following this average based off of their scientific forecasting practices. Two other universities have also submitted their forecast including the University of Arizona at nine and Colorado State University at six.
The 2023 forecast includes more than just a hurricane forecast. The report includes forecast for named storms, tropical, storms, hurricane storm strength (Category 1-2 and Category 3-5), along with the forecasted areas for these hurricanes to form.
When deciding upon these numbers for this years forecast, very expansive research is done using various methods of forecasting including analog forecasting. Using large-scale patterns such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), meteorologist can better home in on forecast by looking at changing conditions such as temperatures changes between the ocean and atmosphere. The past three years, the atmosphere has been in La Nina conditions. Heading into this late-summer/ fall conditions are expected to change into ENSO-Neutral or El Nino conditions which plays an important factor into how active a season may be.