Tracking a cold front and its impacts on the rest of our week
TODAY: Rain and thunder remain in the forecast, this morning as a cold front is already pushing through the region today. A cold front is draped across the northern half of the area early this morning, and as it progresses south it is expected to spur scattered showers and thunderstorms. These storms will be modestly potent at best, with a chance at producing some hail briefly north of I-70, but these storms are weakening by late morning, as our upper level instability wanes with time through the rest of the morning. The leftover showers and storms push south with the front across I-70, and towards I-44 by the afternoon. This is where the front will encounter better "heat of the day" type instability at the surface and aloft, creating a better chance for strong to severe storms capable of wind and tornadoes. Fortunately this severe threat stays ahead of the front, which should be completely out of our region, and on the south side of I-44 by the time these storms get going, around 6-7 p.m. Still, some storms north of the front may pose a hail risk. If the front slows down for whatever reason, this could change, but its not looking incredibly likely at this point. Behind the front for most of us through the morning, we'll be mostly dry with some spotty light showers possible. We'll also be cool with temperatures falling into the 40s by the afternoon. As the front develops storms to our south, some shower activity may spread north of the front back into mid-Missouri, so rain chances look to peak again into the evening for those north of the front. Showers this evening could reach as far north as Columbia and Montgomery City.
TONIGHT: The front sort of turns into a stationary boundary, keeping rain where it is overnight, nudging only slightly southward by early Friday morning. Temperatures may fall just into the upper 30s overnight, if not sticking in the low 40s.
EXTENDED: Friday keeps the boundary parked south of us, but a surface low will travel northeast along the front, increasing shower chances through the day. Temperatures stay cool, in the 40s. Saturday, the rain and clouds exit in favor of some high pressure. This boosts temperatures back into the 50s. Rain chances are less certain heading forward, with quick passing chances Sunday night and Monday morning, with highs forecast in the 50s. Drier weather sets in through Tuesday and Wednesday.
