Tracking warmth and storm chances
TODAY: Wednesday is noticeably warmer with a resurgence of wind from the south today. Expect winds sustained around 10-15 mph, gusting to 20-30 mph at times. This wind brings in warmth that will pool up just south of a warm front that will be draped across the northern half of mid-Missouri. Along and south of a line from Marshall to Mexico, temperatures will reach upper 60s and low 70s. This comes despite cloud cover, and spotty rain chances. This warm front may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms early this morning, in a window from about 5 a.m. to 10 a.m. This will be focused north, near communities like Brunswick, Macon, and Mexico. This round is not expected to be severe, but some lightning and thunder is possible.
TONIGHT: Some spotty shower and thunderstorm activity is possible through the day in the north, but otherwise, it's a mostly dry day across the majority of the region. As the front starts to drop south as a cold front, more thunderstorms are forecast. This likely takes place after midnight, into early Thursday morning. Some hail is possible with these storms. Temperatures stay warm.
EXTENDED: Storms along the cold front pass south through the morning hours, stalling south of Jefferson City. Thunderstorm activity may wane through the second half of the morning, into the early afternoon, but more activity develops near it in the evening, with storms again having potential for hail. Our biggest impact here will be heavy rain. As the boundary is slow to move, heavy rain along it will pose a flooding risk late Thursday night. This risk is mostly south of I-44, and largely outside of mid-Missouri. Some in the south may see as much as 3 inches of rain. Temperatures will fall through the day on Thursday, into the low 40s by early Friday. Showers linger for Friday, and temperatures stay in the low 50s. Warmer air returns with more sunshine on Saturday, to bring a high near 60. Similar temperatures return Sunday, ahead of another round of rain Sunday night into Monday morning. Temperatures start next week in the 50s.
