Insider Blog: Tracking widespread rain and possible wintry weather Friday morning for some

UPDATE:

The blog below has been updated as of 8:45 am Thursday. This update reflects a shift in track to the east from what was broadcast Wednesday.

BLOG:

After a spring-like week, the Stormtrack Weather Team is tracking a strong low pressure system that will move in from the southern Plains on Thursday and bring impactful weather between Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon.

We're expecting widespread rain, gusty winds, and the potential for a rain-snow mix on Friday morning.

The track of the low and air temperatures will determine how much rain turns over to snow on Friday morning, but we have high confidence in widespread rain overnight Thursday into early Friday morning. Heavy rain is possible at times, with amounts between 1-2.5" through Friday afternoon. Rain looks to move in from the south by mid-late afternoon Thursday.

With the path of the low likely cutting across Mid-Missouri, we can expect cold air to filter in and change rain over to wet snow between about 6-8:00 a.m. Friday.

Temperatures will likely remain in the 33-36 range, meaning snow will be very wet and it will take awhile for snow to accumulate on roads due to how warm temperatures have been the last several days -- if it does at all. That said, there could be some light accumulation on grassy or elevated surfaces. Amounts will likely be less than an inch for much of Mid-Missouri. There is still great uncertainty with how snow will accumulate given surface temperatures in this range. Where temperatures are the coldest, the greatest uncertainty lies. This is where snowfall rates may be able to overcome temperatures, allowing for minor accumulations. It's also important to note that across all forecast ranges, it's possible that warm air holds strong and allows NO accumulation. This is represented by the "0" at the bottom of each range.

Winds could gust up to 40 mph through much of Friday morning and afternoon. Precipitation looks to exit by mid-late afternoon to the northeast, and temperatures recover into the lower 40s.

Be sure to give yourself plenty of time to get around on Thursday night into Friday morning with wet roads expected, and slushy spots possible through the morning commute. Stay updated on road conditions and the radar by downloading the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App.