Weather Alert Day: Tracking storms with potential hail and damaging winds tonight

UPDATE: TUESDAY EVENING

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 3:00 a.m. for Saline, Pettis, Benton, Morgan, Howard, and Cooper counties for the threat of large hail and heavy rain. A Flood Watch is in effect until 10:00 a.m. for areas south of Highway 50 and west of Highway 63 where 2-3" of rain is possible overnight. The latest update to this blog includes a new Futuretrack video that carries into early Wednesday morning, future rain amounts, and severe threats.

SETUP

High pressure to our east opposite of low pressure to our west, has created a healthy south breeze over the past couple of days. This has kept plenty of warmth and even some moisture in place, which will help contribute to a high energy atmosphere in place on Tuesday. This high pressure will also make for a slow moving cold front that is expected to pass through Tuesday night.

IMPACTS

This cold front will generate storms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds. These will be the most common threats. Short lived, relatively weak tornadoes will be possible with these storms, but less likely. Also, with a slow moving set of storms, flash flooding may also be a brief threat in places with repeated heavy rain. A Flood Watch is in effect until 7:00 a.m. Wednesday for Benton and Pettis counties as these areas could end up with multiple rounds of rain that add up to 2-3".

TIMING

As the cold front approaches Kansas City, it likely encounters a more favorable airmass for storms, and clusters of storms begins to develop. This activity will make progress towards us by noon or early afternoon. At this point, the storms are likely at their strongest, and look like they will be able to hold on to at least some intensity deep into mid-Missouri. Arrival time looks to be by late afternoon in the far west. This line of storms looks to keep some severe potential area wide, and may not leave mid-Missouri to the southeast until well after midnight. With this being said, both storm energy, and upper level wind support decrease to the east, so we should have some weakening element as these storms continue into the overnight.

WHAT COULD CHANGE

Timing has been a consistently questionable element of this system so far. In either case, placement or coverage of rain and thunder looks to be areawide. The main element that could still change is time of arrival. A timing change would also affect the severity of storms, and our likelihood of receiving large hail or damaging winds. At this point, a faster moving storm may increase severe risk for more in mid-Missouri, but a slower storm would decrease the risk for most. Stay tuned for the latest updates. Download the ABC17 Stormtrack Weather App.