Tracking a few storms Thursday, hot and humid through Friday
TONIGHT: Mostly clear with light winds and patchy fog developing by morning. Lows in the upper 50s to around 60.
TOMORROW: Increasing clouds with a chance for storms south of Highway 50. Highs in the mid-upper 80s.
EXTENDED: We'll remain mainly clear but as dew points increase and winds die down, we could see the development of fog thanks to a wet ground. Patchy fog continues into early tomorrow morning with lows falling into the upper 50s to around 60. A wave of energy ejecting out of the Rockies today will push in our direction tomorrow, providing enough lift to get a cluster of storms going across southern Missouri where hot and humid air will be settling in during the day. Some of these storms may clip counties south of Highway 50, but the more likely severe threat will be along and south of I-44 where there's a level 2 severe risk. Areas between Highway 50 and I-44 are in a level 1 risk for isolated hail. The timeline of storms will be from midday through early evening. Once that clears, we'll be quiet into the evening with temperatures remaining near 70 going into Friday morning. Instability returns along with hot and humid air ahead of a cold front that slowly approaches during the day. High temperatures reach the upper 80s across most of Mid-Missouri. There is a conditional threat of severe thunderstorms by late afternoon into Friday night. It will depend on how long the "cap" holds. A "cap" is just a layer of warm air above the surface that storms would have to overcome via a front or forcing mechanism, strong updraft, or warmer temperatures at the ground. If the cap holds during the day we will likely remain hot and sunny. Timing of the front could also play a role in the potential for severe storms. As temperatures decrease with sunset, the cold front could begin to trigger storms Friday night into Saturday morning, but the intensity would likely be lower. We could end up with split temperatures on Saturday depending on where the front ends up in the morning. If it's slow, areas north will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s. Farther south, we'll be in the 70s and 80s, but that scenario is more likely toward the St. Louis area. We'll still have lingering showers through much of the day, with temperatures dropping into the upper 40s by Sunday morning. Sunday looks like the nicer day of the weekend with more sunshine and highs in the mid-upper 60s. Next week looks active by Tuesday into Wednesday with more widespread rain and storms, and temperatures a few degrees below average in the 70s.
