Tracking a cloudy Tuesday, rain and storms return tomorrow

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 40s to around 50.

TOMORROW: Mostly cloudy and warmer with highs in the lower to mid-60s. Rain returns by late afternoon and becomes more widespread by evening.

EXTENDED: High pressure will reduce winds tonight, enough to bring our lows back down into the upper 40s. We'll start off tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies and a dry morning commute, but rain returns by late afternoon ahead of a warm front that will begin lifting north across southern Missouri into Thursday. Low level winds really pick up Wednesday night into Thursday morning, bringing widespread rain and a few storms to the area on Thursday morning. As that system slides northeast, there will be a small window for a conditional severe weather threat. If the front lifts far enough north, we'll see an increase in instability in the afternoon, leading to more storms that could produce damaging winds. Right now, the best environment looks to set up across southern Missouri through Arkansas where there is a level 3 out of 5 severe risk. Mid-Missouri is currently in a level 2 or slight risk, but it may change a bit as we get closer to the event. Given the uncertainty at this time, we will hold off on issuing a Weather Alert Day, but that could still happen as things evolve and we get a better picture of what's ahead. Even if a severe threat doesn't materialize, we're still in for about 1-1.5" of rain, with 2" possible near the Lake of the Ozarks. A Flood Watch is in effect for southwest and south central Missouri through Thursday afternoon, including the Lake of the Ozarks where 2"+ is possible through Friday morning. Showers will exit Friday as the cold front slowly works east out of the area. We'll be left with temperatures near 70 on Saturday. Winds shift back to the southwest on Sunday, pushing our temperatures on Mother's Day into the upper 70s to around 80. Rain chances look to hold off until at least Monday.